NextGenLive
Methodology

How Our Rankings Work

A transparent, data-driven approach to school sport rankings

Powered by the ELO Rating System — the same methodology trusted in chess, football, and esports worldwide

Why Traditional Rankings Fail

For decades, school sport rankings have been dominated by subjective methods that produce inconsistent, biased, and often inaccurate results.

Voted polls are popularity contests
Big-name schools get votes regardless of on-field performance
Panel-based rankings have inherent bias
Panellists tend to favour teams they watch, creating regional blind spots
No consistency between publications
Different outlets produce wildly different rankings from the same results
Cross-region comparison is impossible
How do you compare a team from Pretoria with one from Durban without data?
Traditional sports scoreboard

The ELO Rating System

Originally developed by Arpad Elo in the 1960s for chess, the ELO system has been adopted by FIFA for world football rankings, the Premier League, and major esports competitions worldwide.

Chess pieces representing the ELO rating system

The Core Principle

Every team has a numerical rating. When two teams play, their ratings adjust based on the result AND the expected outcome.

“Beating a strong team earns more points than beating a weak one. Losing to a strong team costs fewer points than losing to a weak one.”

The Mathematics Behind the Rankings

Four steps that turn match results into accurate rankings

1

Expected Result

Before every match, we calculate the expected outcome based on the rating difference between the two teams.

Example
Team A
1800
vs
Team B
1600
Team A is expected to win roughly 76% of the time
76% Team A
24%
2

K-Factor

The K-factor determines how much a single result impacts the ratings. NextGenLive uses sport-specific K-factors calibrated for each discipline.

Rugby
Higher K-Factor
More volatile — every match matters in short seasons
Hockey
Medium K-Factor
Balanced sensitivity for league formats
Cricket
Adjusted K-Factor
Format-dependent (T20 vs multi-day)
3

Rating Adjustment

After the match, ratings adjust based on the actual result versus the expected result. Upsets cause larger swings.

Expected Result
Team A (1800) beats Team B (1600)
Team A gains a small number of points. This was the expected outcome.
1800→ 1808+8
Upset!
Team B (1600) beats Team A (1800)
Team B gains a large number of points. This was a major upset.
1600→ 1632+32
4

Margin of Victory

We don't just consider wins and losses — the margin matters. A dominant victory adjusts ratings more than a narrow win. This rewards genuine dominance, not just scraping by.

45 – 7
Dominant win
+24 pts
17 – 14
Narrow win
+10 pts

Our Competitive Edge

What makes NextGenLive rankings the most trusted in school sport

Historical Depth

Our database spans back to 1876 with 58,000+ matches. More data means more accurate ratings.

Multi-Sport

ELO adapted for rugby, hockey, netball, cricket, and football with sport-specific parameters.

Season-Aware

Hemisphere-aware seasons — Southern (Jan–Oct) and Northern (Sep–Jun). Ratings regress between seasons.

Transparent

Every rating is calculated from real match results. No votes. No panels. No bias. Just data.

Updated Weekly

Rankings process automatically as new results come in. Always current, always accurate.

Power Rating

Every team gets a 0.000–1.000 Power Rating. Easy to understand at a glance how teams compare.

What the Numbers Mean

Understanding where your team sits on the rating scale

1800+
Elite
Top programmes, dominant across all competitions
1600–1800
Strong
Competitive at festival level, consistent contenders
1400–1600
Average
Mid-table, solid programmes with room to grow
1200–1400
Developing
Building programmes, gaining experience
Below 1200
Emerging
New or rebuilding teams entering the system

These are internal ELO ratings. On the public site, we display the Power Rating (0.000–1.000 scale) for simplicity. Power Rating = ELO ÷ 2000.

Frequently Asked Questions

See the Rankings in Action

Explore the full live rankings table, track your team's progress, and see who's climbing the ladder.

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